YTD: 7-5
1*: 3-0
2*: 4-5
$: +2,75*
3* Bayern München -0,5 -104 (Pinnacle)
Square play, but I couldn't care less. Hamburg is a team in big, big trouble. They've been a disappointment all year. In the last two weeks they played two of the worst teams in the league in Mönchengladbach and Mainz and couldn't beat either one of them. How are we supposed to believe they can keep pace with Bayern? The answer is they can't and they won't.
Another reason I strongly believe in this game is the fact that Bundesliga leaders Schalke already won today and are now 6 points ahead of Bayern. If Bayern doesn't win, they will not only trail Schalke by 5 or 6 points but probably fall further behind Bremen and Stuttgart who both have relatively easy home games.
Finally history is on our side too as Bayern has always done well in Hamburg. Before losing there last year they had gone undefeated in Hamburg 9 years in a row.
2* Hertha BSC Berlin over 2,5 -145 (Pinnacle)
This could also be played at -119 and 2,5/3 goals but as the odds are not that far apart I prefer to cash the entire ticket in the case of exactly 3 goals being scored.
Both of these teams goals per game ratio is over 3 (Hertha 3,15/ Aachen 3,38). Consequently Hertha has gone over in 5 of their 6 home games and the same is true for Aachen in their 6 away games. I expect another high scoring game today.
2* SC Freiburg under 2,5/3 -113 (Pinnacle)
Freiburg has scored only 7 goals in their 6 home games, only 1 of those games went over. Offenbach has only scored 4 goals in their 6 away games and the only reason that 4 of those 6 went over was the fact that the other teams scored against their below average defense.
While I don't expect that defense to be improved this week, Freiburg is simply not the team to exploit it. They have trouble scoring in virtually every game. Only twice in their 12 league games so far have they scored more than 1 goal. Even though their home schedule has been fairly soft so far this year with games against bottom clubs Unterhaching, Braunschweig and Burghausen, they've had trouble scoring in each of those games.
Expect an ugly low scoring game again on Sunday.
2* Eintr. Braunschweig +0,5 -122 (Pinnacle)
Why do I recommend taking the last place team that has been a disappointment all season? Because they have a new coach who seems to give them a lot of confidence and because Burghausen is one the friendliest places to visit in Bundesliga 2.
Braunschweig hired Willi Reimann last week, a guy who has successfully worked in the German Bundesliga for many years with St. Pauli, Wolfsburg and Frankfurt. He made an immediate impact last week when his team held top club Duisburg to a 1-1 draw and showed a decent performance for the first time in weeks.
He has always been known as a great motivator and from what I have heard all week he has already had a tremendous impact on the confidence and attitudes of his players.
Burghausen is one of the weaker teams in the league and they've been especially vulnerable at home over the years. This is a good spot for Braunschweig to start their comeback.
2* Dynamo Dresden +109 (Pinnacle)
Dresden is one of the strongest home teams in the league going 6-1-1 while St. Pauli has been a year long disappointment which led to the firing of their coach during this week. A reason for Dresden's strong home performances is their huge fan support and there will be well over 10000 again tomorrow. Add to this the fact that St. Pauli still has severe injury problems and you have a line that is too high imo at +109. I will neglect the St. Pauli coaching situation as they don't have a new coach yet and the assistans will be in charge tomorrow. I don't believe this will influence the outcome of the game in any way.
Good luck to everyone!!
1*: 3-0
2*: 4-5
$: +2,75*
3* Bayern München -0,5 -104 (Pinnacle)
Square play, but I couldn't care less. Hamburg is a team in big, big trouble. They've been a disappointment all year. In the last two weeks they played two of the worst teams in the league in Mönchengladbach and Mainz and couldn't beat either one of them. How are we supposed to believe they can keep pace with Bayern? The answer is they can't and they won't.
Another reason I strongly believe in this game is the fact that Bundesliga leaders Schalke already won today and are now 6 points ahead of Bayern. If Bayern doesn't win, they will not only trail Schalke by 5 or 6 points but probably fall further behind Bremen and Stuttgart who both have relatively easy home games.
Finally history is on our side too as Bayern has always done well in Hamburg. Before losing there last year they had gone undefeated in Hamburg 9 years in a row.
2* Hertha BSC Berlin over 2,5 -145 (Pinnacle)
This could also be played at -119 and 2,5/3 goals but as the odds are not that far apart I prefer to cash the entire ticket in the case of exactly 3 goals being scored.
Both of these teams goals per game ratio is over 3 (Hertha 3,15/ Aachen 3,38). Consequently Hertha has gone over in 5 of their 6 home games and the same is true for Aachen in their 6 away games. I expect another high scoring game today.
2* SC Freiburg under 2,5/3 -113 (Pinnacle)
Freiburg has scored only 7 goals in their 6 home games, only 1 of those games went over. Offenbach has only scored 4 goals in their 6 away games and the only reason that 4 of those 6 went over was the fact that the other teams scored against their below average defense.
While I don't expect that defense to be improved this week, Freiburg is simply not the team to exploit it. They have trouble scoring in virtually every game. Only twice in their 12 league games so far have they scored more than 1 goal. Even though their home schedule has been fairly soft so far this year with games against bottom clubs Unterhaching, Braunschweig and Burghausen, they've had trouble scoring in each of those games.
Expect an ugly low scoring game again on Sunday.
2* Eintr. Braunschweig +0,5 -122 (Pinnacle)
Why do I recommend taking the last place team that has been a disappointment all season? Because they have a new coach who seems to give them a lot of confidence and because Burghausen is one the friendliest places to visit in Bundesliga 2.
Braunschweig hired Willi Reimann last week, a guy who has successfully worked in the German Bundesliga for many years with St. Pauli, Wolfsburg and Frankfurt. He made an immediate impact last week when his team held top club Duisburg to a 1-1 draw and showed a decent performance for the first time in weeks.
He has always been known as a great motivator and from what I have heard all week he has already had a tremendous impact on the confidence and attitudes of his players.
Burghausen is one of the weaker teams in the league and they've been especially vulnerable at home over the years. This is a good spot for Braunschweig to start their comeback.
2* Dynamo Dresden +109 (Pinnacle)
Dresden is one of the strongest home teams in the league going 6-1-1 while St. Pauli has been a year long disappointment which led to the firing of their coach during this week. A reason for Dresden's strong home performances is their huge fan support and there will be well over 10000 again tomorrow. Add to this the fact that St. Pauli still has severe injury problems and you have a line that is too high imo at +109. I will neglect the St. Pauli coaching situation as they don't have a new coach yet and the assistans will be in charge tomorrow. I don't believe this will influence the outcome of the game in any way.
Good luck to everyone!!
